Matrix Signal

Week 9 forecasts · Updated October 2656 games26 spread picks25 total picks6 Upset Watch games

Week 9 Forecast Board

Scores & forecasts.

WEEK 9 SCOREBOARD Updated 7:58 PM

SAT · 3:30 PM ET ABC

MATRIX PROJ

Florida 20

Georgia 30

SAT · 7:30 PM ET NBC

MATRIX PROJ

Ohio State 35

USC 19

SAT · 4:15 PM ET SEC Network

MATRIX PROJ

South Carolina 21

Oklahoma 26

SAT · 12:00 PM ET ESPN

MATRIX PROJ

Arizona 21

Texas Tech 30

SAT · 8:00 PM ET BTN

MATRIX PROJ

Washington 23

Nebraska 27

SAT · 12:45 PM ET SEC Network

MATRIX PROJ

Auburn 22

Ole Miss 31

SAT · 3:30 PM ET Peacock

MATRIX PROJ

Northwestern 16

Oregon 33

SAT · 3:30 PM ET CBS

MATRIX PROJ

Minnesota 14

Indiana 34

GameDay Matrix · National Command

Saturday Starts in the Matrix.

College football power rankings, projections, market signals and the games shaping the week — one connected view of the Matrix.

Featured Matchup SAT, OCT 31 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Florida

MPR #16 · 5-2

Matrix Projection

20–30

Georgia 76%

Georgia

MPR #3 · 6-1

Model EdgeGeorgia 10.5

Win Chance76%

Model Total49.6

Week 9 published projection.

Open in Game Lab →

College Football Headlines

Around college football.

Publisher headlines · captured October 26

ESPNMatchupOct 26

Oregon QB Dante Moore not expected to return this seasonRead at ESPN ↗

ESPNAnalysisOct 26

NC State's Todd Goebbel gives credit to fired coach DoerenRead at ESPN ↗

ESPNMatchupOct 26

Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy out after dislocating shoulderRead at ESPN ↗

ESPNMatchupOct 26

Cignetti expects QB Hoover to be healthier vs. MinnesotaRead at ESPN ↗

ESPNMatchupOct 26

Florida won't name Philo or Jones as QB1 until later in weekRead at ESPN ↗

ESPNRankingsOct 26

College football Power Rankings - Dramatic Week 8 changes top 25Read at ESPN ↗

Matrix Signal Board Published forecasts · Matchup context

Matrix Picks9

WEEK 9PREGAME

Oregon -3.5

Northwestern at Oregon

Matrix: Oregon -17.1
Recorded: Line -3.5

13.6 ptsModel–market gap · High confidence

Quarterback context

Quarterback context Dan Lanning said October 26 that Dante Moore is not expected to return this season. Jay Johnson will coordinate Oregon’s offense after Drew Mehringer’s dismissal. The reviewed announcement does not name Oregon’s Week 9 starter. NWS game-window forecast: wind 1–5 mph, precipitation chance up to 22%, 48–54°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 27 (ET)

WEEK 9PREGAME

Tulane -10

Tulane at Charlotte

Matrix: Tulane -22.2
Recorded: Line -10.0

12.2 ptsModel–market gap · Low confidence

WEEK 9PREGAME

Coastal Carolina +6.5

Coastal Carolina at Georgia State

Matrix: Coastal Carolina -4.6
Recorded: Line +6.5

11.1 ptsModel–market gap · Low confidence

Quarterback context

Quarterback context Georgia State’s October 24 recap identifies Ayden Pereira as its passing leader against Arkansas State, following Cameran Brown’s heavier passing workload in the previous game. A Week 9 starter is not confirmed in the reviewed sources. NWS game-window forecast: wind 10 mph, gusts up to 18 mph, 73–75°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)

Show all 9 Matrix picks

WEEK 9PREGAME

Penn State -7.5

Purdue at Penn State

Matrix: Penn State -18.5
Recorded: Line -7.5

11.0 ptsModel–market gap · Medium confidence

WEEK 9PREGAME

Florida Atlantic +13.5

Florida Atlantic at North Texas

Matrix: North Texas -2.8
Recorded: Line +13.5

10.7 ptsModel–market gap · Low confidence

WEEK 9PREGAME

Troy +21

Troy at James Madison

Matrix: James Madison -11.4
Recorded: Line +21.0

9.6 ptsModel–market gap · Medium confidence

Quarterback context

Quarterback context The Sun Belt’s October 26 initial report lists Troy quarterback Goose Crowder probable; James Madison quarterback Tanner Vibabul doubtful. NWS game-window forecast: wind 0–1 mph, 53–65°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)

WEEK 9PREGAME

Kennesaw State +2.5

Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee

Matrix: Kennesaw State -7.0
Recorded: Line +2.5

9.5 ptsModel–market gap · Medium confidence

WEEK 9PREGAME

Ohio State -6.5

Ohio State at USC

Matrix: Ohio State -15.5
Recorded: Line -6.5

9.0 ptsModel–market gap · High confidence

WEEK 9PREGAME

Fresno State +5.5

Oregon State at Fresno State

Matrix: Fresno State -2.5
Recorded: Line +5.5

8.0 ptsModel–market gap · Low confidence

Upset Watch6

6 closest FBS forecasts by projected margin.

CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEPREGAME

Southern Miss at UL Monroe

Matrix: Southern Miss -0.5
Recorded: Southern Miss -3.5

UL Monroe +3.549% outright · Low confidence

Rain / thunderstorm chance

Rain / thunderstorm chance NWS game-window forecast: wind 5 mph, precipitation chance up to 52%, a thunderstorm chance, 76–80°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 27 (ET)

CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEPREGAME

Baylor at UCF

Matrix: UCF -1.3
Recorded: UCF -1.5

Baylor +1.547% outright · Low confidence

Quarterback context · Wind

Quarterback context · Wind Baylor announced October 25 that Dave Aranda was relieved of his duties. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman is interim head coach for the rest of the season. UCF’s October 26 update identifies Keyone Jenkins as the quarterback who threw for 293 yards and accounted for four touchdowns in the win over BYU. This dated performance is separate from Friday’s availability report. NWS game-window forecast: wind 10–15 mph, gusts up to 23 mph, precipitation chance up to 20%, 73–79°F. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context updated October 26 (ET)

Show all 6 Upset Watch games

CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEPREGAME

Clemson at Florida State

Matrix: Florida State -1.9
Recorded: Florida State -6.0

Clemson +645% outright · Low confidence

CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEPREGAME

Army at Memphis

Matrix: Memphis -2.3
Recorded: Memphis -6.0

Army +644% outright · Low confidence

CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEPREGAME

Oregon State at Fresno State

Matrix: Fresno State -2.5
Recorded: Oregon State -5.5

Fresno State +5.557% outright · Low confidence

CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEPREGAME

Florida Atlantic at North Texas

Matrix: North Texas -2.8
Recorded: North Texas -13.5

Florida Atlantic +13.543% outright · Low confidence

Published Week 9 forecasts · recorded market quotes · lines can move.

Inside the Matrix · Week 9

Open Matrix Wire →

Week 8 closeout56 finals. Winner picks finish 35–21.

Margin error averaged 12.18 points. Published market comparisons finished 22–34 on spreads and 28–28 on totals.

Open the review →

Week 9 forecasts56 games. The new week starts Tuesday.

Scores, winners, spreads and totals use the October 26 model update. Each matchup keeps its dated DraftKings comparison and relevant player or weather context.

Current ratingsEvery Week 8 final shapes the new outlook.

All 138 teams reviewed. Records, projected wins and conference title chances include the complete Week 8 slate.

Matchup contextQuarterback roles and game-window weather.

Every active matchup screened. Current reports remain distinct from prior participation, and forecasts use actual venues and game windows.

Matrix UnhingedOriginal tickets and fresh dated quotes.

Week 8 combinations and their losses are archived. Week 9 prices and illustrative returns retain their observation date.

Weekly learningThe market outperformed our model this week.

Fixed challengers and later private shortlists are evaluated separately. No model change is promoted from a single week.

Week 9 · Saturday, October 31 · October 26 edition · Weekend tickets

Matrix Unhinged

Week 9 combinations from published Matrix forecasts and exact recorded quotes.

All tickets & returns

Parlay A · 3 spread legsPublished

Penn State, Ohio State, Fresno State.

Penn State -7.5-112
Ohio State -6.5-115
Fresno State +5.5-108

Combined odds ≈+582$10.00 returns$68.16

See the ticket

Parlay B · 3 spread legsPublished

South Florida, Boise State, Texas Tech.

South Florida -8.5-105
Boise State -11.5-108
Texas Tech -3.5-108

Combined odds ≈+624$10.00 returns$72.42

See the ticket

Perfect Storm · 3 moneyline upsetsPublished

Fresno State, UL Monroe, Clemson.

Fresno State ML+185
UL Monroe ML+142
Clemson ML+180

Combined odds ≈+1,831$10.00 returns$193.12

See the ticket

DraftKings quotes observed Oct 26, 10:58 PM ET. Illustrative returns include the stake and require every leg to win. Recorded October 26 quotes; lines and availability can change.

National Power Rankings

GameDay Matrix Top 25 Power Rankings.

See the complete profile behind each ranking: MPR, scoring offense, scoring defense, point differential, schedule strength, projected wins and weekly movement. View all 138 teams →

Top offenseNotre Dame37.3 PPG Top defenseOhio State16.0 pts allowed Best scoring marginNotre Dame+20.9 per game Toughest scheduleTexasSOS #1

Rank

TeamMPROffenseDefenseNetSOSProj WinsMove

#1 OS

Ohio StateBig Ten · 6-1 MPR32.4#1 Offense33.8#8 · PPG Defense16.0#1 · allowed Net+17.8#3 SOS#19schedule Proj Wins10.36#4 Week move+0.17+0.17 MPR

#2 ND

Notre DameIndependent · 6-1 MPR27.4#2 Offense37.3#1 · PPG Defense16.4#2 · allowed Net+20.9#1 SOS#55schedule Proj Wins10.40#3 Week move-0.14-0.14 MPR

#3 G

GeorgiaSEC · 6-1 MPR27.3#3 Offense32.9#12 · PPG Defense18.6#10 · allowed Net+14.2#8 SOS#21schedule Proj Wins10.03#8 Week move-0.10-0.10 MPR

#4 I

IndianaBig Ten · 7-1 MPR25.1#4 Offense34.9#4 · PPG Defense16.6#3 · allowed Net+18.3#2 SOS#41schedule Proj Wins10.46#2 Week move-0.02-0.02 MPR

#5 M(

Miami (FL)ACC · 7-0 MPR24.5#5 Offense33.5#10 · PPG Defense17.8#8 · allowed Net+15.7#5 SOS#47schedule Proj Wins11.02#1 Week move▲ 1+0.58 MPR

#6 O

OregonBig Ten · 4-3 MPR23.9#6 Offense30.9#24 · PPG Defense20.1#19 · allowed Net+10.8#17 SOS#8schedule Proj Wins7.64#47 Week move▼ 1-1.18 MPR

#7 L

LSUSEC · 6-2 MPR23.7#7 Offense29.1#38 · PPG Defense21.2#26 · allowed Net+7.9#27 SOS#7schedule Proj Wins8.75#22 Week move▲ 1+1.06 MPR

#8 T

TexasSEC · 5-2 MPR23.3#8 Offense31.0#21 · PPG Defense21.7#31 · allowed Net+9.3#24 SOS#1schedule Proj Wins8.45#24 Week move▼ 1+0.07 MPR

#9 A

AlabamaSEC · 6-2 MPR20.9#9 Offense30.8#25 · PPG Defense16.7#4 · allowed Net+14.1#10 SOS#5schedule Proj Wins8.99#17 Week move▲ 1+0.32 MPR

#10 TT

Texas TechBig 12 · 6-1 MPR20.1#10 Offense32.9#11 · PPG Defense19.9#17 · allowed Net+13.0#12 SOS#65schedule Proj Wins9.97#10 Week move▼ 1-1.19 MPR

#11 TA

Texas A&MSEC · 4-4 MPR18.9#11 Offense27.4#59 · PPG Defense25.9#67 · allowed Net+1.5#63 SOS#15schedule Proj Wins6.16#75 Week move-0.44-0.44 MPR

#12 OM

Ole MissSEC · 5-2 MPR18.6#12 Offense32.8#14 · PPG Defense21.8#32 · allowed Net+11.0#16 SOS#18schedule Proj Wins8.37#26 Week move-0.04-0.04 MPR

#13 T

TennesseeSEC · 6-2 MPR17.5#13 Offense29.4#35 · PPG Defense27.1#83 · allowed Net+2.3#56 SOS#12schedule Proj Wins8.22#29 Week move-0.73-0.73 MPR

#14 B

BYUBig 12 · 6-1 MPR16.2#14 Offense32.1#16 · PPG Defense21.4#28 · allowed Net+10.7#18 SOS#50schedule Proj Wins9.76#14 Week move-1.35-1.35 MPR

#15 O

OklahomaSEC · 4-3 MPR15.8#15 Offense24.7#86 · PPG Defense23.8#41 · allowed Net+0.9#70 SOS#3schedule Proj Wins6.61#67 Week move▲ 2+0.12 MPR

#16 F

FloridaSEC · 5-2 MPR15.6#16 Offense25.9#72 · PPG Defense23.0#36 · allowed Net+2.9#53 SOS#6schedule Proj Wins7.86#40 Week move-0.14-0.14 MPR

#17 U

USCBig Ten · 6-2 MPR15.5#17 Offense26.5#67 · PPG Defense28.7#103 · allowed Net-2.2#81 SOS#20schedule Proj Wins7.80#42 Week move▼ 2-1.34 MPR

#18 M

MichiganBig Ten · 4-3 MPR14.5#18 Offense25.7#76 · PPG Defense24.6#48 · allowed Net+1.1#68 SOS#10schedule Proj Wins6.67#65 Week move+0.28+0.28 MPR

#19 PS

Penn StateBig Ten · 3-4 MPR14.2#19 Offense31.0#22 · PPG Defense19.8#14 · allowed Net+11.2#15 SOS#61schedule Proj Wins6.77#61 Week move+0.09+0.09 MPR

#20 M