Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Maalik Murphy supplies experience, but a first-year staff and heavy reliance on lower-level transfers leave both the floor and weekly consistency uncertain.
MPR #75Projected Wins #48Pac-12 MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-1.4National #75
Projected Wins7.55National #48
Schedule Strength#74National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+0.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-0.89 → -1.39-0.51 MPR
Rank#73 → #75-2 spots
Projected Wins7.59 → 7.55Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Oregon State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.02
Current Win-Total Gap+2.92
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -1.39 = OFF 22.55 − DEF 25.90 + ST -0.45 + legacy residual -0.50 + season adjustment 2.91. Sigma 2.41.
