Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The league's strongest baseline, Maddux Madsen's 26 starts and 11 returning starters create the best median; the rebuilt secondary is the main concern.
MPR #34Projected Wins #5Pac-12 MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating9.7National #34
Projected Wins10.26National #5
Schedule Strength#73National SOS rank
Projected Offense34.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense18.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+15.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR9.41 → 9.73+0.32 MPR
Rank#34 → #34+0 spots
Projected Wins10.06 → 10.26Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Washington State 31–10. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (11 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market7.97
Current Win-Total Gap+1.46
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 9.73 = OFF 30.35 − DEF 22.45 + ST -0.30 + legacy residual 0.20 + season adjustment 1.93. Sigma 1.91.
