Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Fifteen returning starters and Dante Moore give Oregon the conference's strongest continuity profile; coordinator turnover is the primary deduction.
MPR #6Projected Wins #47Big Ten MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating23.9National #6
Projected Wins7.64National #47
Schedule Strength#8National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense20.1Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+10.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR25.10 → 23.91-1.18 MPR
Rank#5 → #6-1 spots
Projected Wins8.60 → 7.64Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Illinois 10–21. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Oregon news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total10.5
Preseason Effective Market10.44
Current Win-Total Gap-2.80
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 23.91 = OFF 39.67 − DEF 14.07 + ST 0.39 + legacy residual -0.55 + season adjustment -1.54. Sigma 2.31.
