Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Bryce Underwood, strong line continuity and quality transfers support the roster; a new head coach and both new coordinators add transition risk.
MPR #18Projected Wins #65Big Ten MPR #5Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating14.5National #18
Projected Wins6.67National #65
Schedule Strength#10National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense24.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+1.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR14.24 → 14.52+0.28 MPR
Rank#18 → #18+0 spots
Projected Wins6.89 → 6.67Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Indiana 6–13. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Michigan news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.14
Current Win-Total Gap-1.47
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 14.52 = OFF 31.83 − DEF 15.26 + ST -0.37 + legacy residual -0.00 + season adjustment -1.68. Sigma 2.75.
