Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The schedule and development program provide a floor, but low-rated portal additions and an unsettled quarterback competition cap the upside.
MPR #70Projected Wins #126Big Ten MPR #16Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-0.3National #70
Projected Wins3.43National #126
Schedule Strength#49National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense31.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-9.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR0.94 → -0.33-1.27 MPR
Rank#66 → #70-4 spots
Projected Wins3.87 → 3.43Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Northwestern 14–42. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (3 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.80
Current Win-Total Gap-1.36
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -0.33 = OFF 28.67 − DEF 29.73 + ST 0.07 + legacy residual -0.25 + season adjustment 0.92. Sigma 2.67.
