Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Fourteen returning starters, Jayden Maiava and a major defensive staff upgrade create a stronger team than the schedule-only baseline indicates.
MPR #17Projected Wins #42Big Ten MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating15.5National #17
Projected Wins7.80National #42
Schedule Strength#20National SOS rank
Projected Offense26.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense28.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR16.79 → 15.45-1.34 MPR
Rank#15 → #17-2 spots
Projected Wins8.63 → 7.80Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Wisconsin 7–24. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.31
Current Win-Total Gap-0.52
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 15.45 = OFF 38.73 − DEF 19.65 + ST -0.18 + legacy residual 0.25 + season adjustment -3.70. Sigma 1.57.
