Matrix Power Rating-15.2National #122
Projected Wins4.24National #116
Schedule Strength#82National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.3Points per game
Projected Defense30.1Points allowed
Point Differential-8.8Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
The Week 0 game is now final, but the evidence did not clear the threshold for a team-strength adjustment. Current MPR and projected wins therefore remain at the approved baseline.
Week 0 ResultL 26–42
MPR-15.2 → -15.2
Projected Wins4.24 → 4.24
Model update note
Late scoring showed offensive life. Guardrail: Garbage-time discount.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (4 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total3.5
Effective Market3.97
Adjusted Edge+0.27
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 4EMEastern MichiganAway · Nonconference40%Win %24–28Baseline score-3.7Margin51.5TotalLowFBSOpponent
SEP 12CPCal PolyHome · Nonconference — FCS70%Win %30–22Baseline score+7.9Margin52.2TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19FSFresno StateHome · Nonconference25%Win %18–29Baseline score-10.3Margin47.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 31NMNew MexicoHome · Mountain West19%Win %19–33Baseline score-13.2Margin52.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7NINorthern IllinoisHome · Mountain West66%Win %27–21Baseline score+6.4Margin48.5TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 14AFAir ForceAway · Mountain West14%Win %18–34Baseline score-16.1Margin52.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 27NDNorth Dakota StateHome · Nonconference21%Win %20–32Baseline score-12.0Margin51.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.