Matrix Power Rating-18.4National #125
Projected Wins2.99National #129
Schedule Strength#79National SOS rank
Projected Offense17.4Points per game
Projected Defense30.7Points allowed
Point Differential-13.3Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-18.4 → -18.4
Projected Wins2.99 → 2.99
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (3 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total3.5
Effective Market3.57
Adjusted Edge-0.59
SignalLean
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 12ISIllinois StateHome · Nonconference — FCS26%Win %19–29Baseline score-9.6Margin48.2TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 26GSGeorgia StateAway · Nonconference58%Win %27–24Baseline score+2.7Margin51.9TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 10AFAir ForceHome · Mountain West18%Win %18–31Baseline score-13.6Margin48.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7SJSan Jose StateAway · Mountain West34%Win %21–27Baseline score-6.4Margin48.5TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 21NDNorth Dakota StateAway · Mountain West9%Win %14–34Baseline score-19.9Margin47.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.