Matrix Power Rating-3.2National #83
Projected Wins7.43National #43
Schedule Strength#105National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.1Points per game
Projected Defense23.6Points allowed
Point Differential+5.6Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
The Week 0 game is now final, but the evidence did not clear the threshold for a team-strength adjustment. Current MPR and projected wins therefore remain at the approved baseline.
Week 0 ResultL 27–37
MPR-3.2 → -3.2
Projected Wins7.43 → 7.43
Model update note
Competitive until final minutes. Guardrail: No strong rating evidence.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (7 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.24
Adjusted Edge+0.19
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 12NMNew Mexico StateHome · Nonconference85%Win %34–19Baseline score+16.5Margin53.1TotalHighFBSOpponent
OCT 3SJSan Jose StateHome · Mountain West84%Win %35–20Baseline score+14.8Margin54.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 10ASArizona StateAway · Nonconference20%Win %20–33Baseline score-12.7Margin52.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 24NINorthern IllinoisAway · Mountain West80%Win %31–19Baseline score+12.6Margin50.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14NDNorth Dakota StateHome · Mountain West50%Win %26–27Baseline score-0.2Margin52.9TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 28SSSacramento StateHome · Nonconference94%Win %39–16Baseline score+23.0Margin54.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.