Matrix Power Rating1.8National #61
Projected Wins9.29National #8
Schedule Strength#119National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.2Points per game
Projected Defense20.4Points allowed
Point Differential+9.8Projected per game
Current Context
Certified UpdateWhat Changed
The Week 0 result cleared the model-update gate. The adjustment is reflected in the current MPR, national rank and projected-wins figures above.
Week 0 ResultW 33–7
MPR-0.7 → 1.8
Projected Wins8.47 → 9.29
Model update note
FBS-transition prior appears conservative. Guardrail: Transition uncertainty remains high.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (9 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total8.5
Effective Market8.92
Adjusted Edge-0.46
SignalLean
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
AUG 29JSJacksonville StateHome · FINALWResult33–7Pre-game model 32–22—Win %—TotalFinal+26Actual margin
SEP 5FFordhamHome · Nonconference — FCS94%Win %37–14Baseline score+22.8Margin50.9TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19SSSacramento StateAway · Nonconference91%Win %36–16Baseline score+19.5Margin51.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 21NINorthern IllinoisHome · Mountain West91%Win %34–14Baseline score+19.9Margin47.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 27SJSan Jose StateAway · Nonconference79%Win %32–20Baseline score+12.0Margin51.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.