Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The Bison bring elite program infrastructure and a strong defense into FBS, but offensive skill turnover and four difficult conference road games constrain the median.
MPR #60Projected Wins #15Mountain West MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating2.0National #60
Projected Wins9.23National #15
Schedule Strength#124National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense17.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+15.5Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR1.92 → 2.01+0.09 MPR
Rank#61 → #60+1 spots
Projected Wins9.52 → 9.23Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to New Mexico 16–21. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.92
Current Win-Total Gap+0.31
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 2.01 = OFF 24.80 − DEF 25.30 + ST 0.10 + legacy residual 2.70 + season adjustment -0.29. Sigma 2.53.
