Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Thirteen returning starters, Jack Layne and Jason Eck create the conference's strongest continuity profile, though last year's close-game success warrants caution.
MPR #56Projected Wins #12Mountain West MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating2.9National #56
Projected Wins9.83National #12
Schedule Strength#96National SOS rank
Projected Offense31.2Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense19.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+11.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR3.40 → 2.94-0.46 MPR
Rank#55 → #56-1 spots
Projected Wins9.61 → 9.83Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat North Dakota State 21–16. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest New Mexico news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (10 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.12
Current Win-Total Gap+1.71
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 2.94 = OFF 26.30 − DEF 25.10 + ST 0.75 + legacy residual -2.45 + season adjustment 3.44. Sigma 1.89.
