Matrix Power Rating-2.5National #81
Projected Wins7.41National #45
Schedule Strength#95National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.4Points per game
Projected Defense21.5Points allowed
Point Differential+7.8Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR0.3 → -2.5
Projected Wins8.07 → 7.41
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (8 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total8.5
Effective Market8.12
Adjusted Edge-0.06
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5CMCentral MichiganHome · Nonconference79%Win %31–19Baseline score+12.0Margin49.0TotalHighFBSOpponent
SEP 12MMercyhurstHome · Nonconference — FCS95%Win %39–13Baseline score+25.3Margin51.7TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 26NMNew Mexico StateAway · Nonconference83%Win %32–18Baseline score+14.3Margin50.9TotalHighFBSOpponent
OCT 24NDNorth Dakota StateHome · Mountain West59%Win %27–24Baseline score+3.4Margin50.7TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 31SJSan Jose StateAway · Mountain West81%Win %33–19Baseline score+13.2Margin52.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 27AFAir ForceHome · Mountain West62%Win %29–24Baseline score+4.6Margin52.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.