UConn at Air Force
Matrix 22–31 · Air Force 73.7%
Current MPR leaderNew MexicoNational #56 · MPR 2.9
Projected wins leaderNew Mexico9.83 expected wins
Average MPR-7.9Current neutral-field strength
MPR Top 250Teams ranked 1–25 nationally
Title favoriteNew Mexico48.8% to win the title
Conference Headlines
Latest Mountain West news and movement.
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Current Strength
Team-by-Team Outlook
Conference rank follows current MPR. Records and title chances are with results through October 25.
RankTeamMPRProj WinsSOSTitle chancesWk MPR
2.9MPR9.83Proj wins#96SOSReach83.2%Win48.8%-0.46 Week 8 MPR
2.0MPR7.90Proj wins#92SOSReach65.0%Win31.7%-0.03 Week 8 MPR
2.0MPR9.23Proj wins#124SOSReach25.5%Win11.6%+0.09 Week 8 MPR
-2.2MPR8.18Proj wins#103SOSReach11.6%Win4.6%-1.39 Week 8 MPR
-5.7MPR4.78Proj wins#110SOSReach<0.1%Win<0.1%+1.56 Week 8 MPR
-8.8MPR6.73Proj wins#107SOSReach14.2%Win3.2%+1.37 Week 8 MPR
-10.2MPR4.56Proj wins#87SOSReach0.4%Win<0.1%+0.75 Week 8 MPR
-13.8MPR5.43Proj wins#84SOSReach0.2%Win<0.1%-0.78 Week 8 MPR
-21.5MPR1.22Proj wins#78SOSReach<0.1%Win<0.1%-1.12 Week 8 MPR
Snapshot: Standings and season outlook with results through October 25. Ratings after Week 8; published October 26 game forecasts retained. Method & sources →
Evidence In
Week 2 Evidence Archive
The cards below preserve the original Week 2 review. Their changes are historical; the current Move column above shows the Week 8 update.
Model UpdatedUNLV
L 6–44 vs North Texas
MPR -1.75 · Projected Wins -1.11
Model UpdatedNorth Dakota StateW 38–32 vs Air Force
MPR +0.50 · Projected Wins +0.66
Model UpdatedAir ForceL 32–38 vs North Dakota State
MPR -0.25 · Projected Wins -0.52
No saved forecastHawaiiW 29–19 vs New Mexico State
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
Model UpdatedNevadaL 7–20 vs Montana State
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins -0.42
No saved forecastNew MexicoW 70–7 vs Mercyhurst
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
Model UpdatedNorthern IllinoisL 24–28 vs Illinois State
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins -0.31
No saved forecastSan Jose StateW 30–20 vs Cal Poly
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastUTEPW 51–10 vs Texas Southern
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastWyomingW 21–13 vs Northern Colorado
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
Week 9 conference games
Published October 26 forecasts with game results as they arrive.
UTEP at North Dakota State
Matrix 12–37 · North Dakota State 95.4%
New Mexico at San Jose State
Matrix 35–17 · New Mexico 87.5%
Nevada at UCLA
Matrix 15–37 · UCLA 93.4%
Northern Illinois at UNLV
Matrix 12–41 · UNLV 97.2%
Week 8 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Air Force at Wyoming
Final 14–28 · Original Matrix 26–20
Frozen forecast and grades →Hawaii at Northern Illinois
Final 56–21 · Original Matrix 30–20
Frozen forecast and grades →San Jose State at Nevada
Final 13–28 · Original Matrix 23–27
Frozen forecast and grades →North Dakota State at New Mexico
Final 16–21 · Original Matrix 21–30
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 7 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Northern Illinois at Wyoming
Final 23–41 · Original Matrix 15–26
Frozen forecast and grades →UNLV at Air Force
Final 31–41 · Original Matrix 31–26
Frozen forecast and grades →Nevada at North Dakota State
Final 17–31 · Original Matrix 18–31
Frozen forecast and grades →San Jose State at UTEP
Final 24–11 · Original Matrix 29–21
Frozen forecast and grades →New Mexico at Hawaii
Final 21–10 · Original Matrix 33–21
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 6 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Wyoming at San Jose State
Final 16–13 · Original Matrix 22–24
Frozen forecast and grades →Nevada at UTEP
Final 30–13 · Original Matrix 29–19
Frozen forecast and grades →North Dakota State at UNLV
Final 7–13 · Original Matrix 24–31
Frozen forecast and grades →Air Force at Northern Illinois
Final 28–7 · Original Matrix 32–17
Frozen forecast and grades →Hawaii at Arizona State
Final 12–30 · Original Matrix 19–34
Frozen forecast and grades →