Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Tyler Hughes and five returning offensive starters should improve the scoring floor, while line-of-scrimmage uncertainty limits the upside.
MPR #102Projected Wins #63Mountain West MPR #6Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-8.8National #102
Projected Wins6.73National #63
Schedule Strength#107National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense24.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-3.0Projected per game
Week 3 Final Context · Frozen Sep 17Wyoming travels to Central Michigan Saturday; fresh game notes are posted, but the RB/QB-depth question remains a signal-board check.
No mean adjustment was reviewed. The early Wyoming side did not make the final Signal Board; no further review is scheduled.
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-10.13 → -8.76+1.37 MPR
Rank#106 → #102+4 spots
Projected Wins5.94 → 6.73Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Air Force 28–14. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.54
Current Win-Total Gap+1.19
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -8.76 = OFF 15.80 − DEF 24.80 + ST -0.85 + legacy residual 0.25 + season adjustment 0.84. Sigma 2.53.
