Matrix Power Rating
Neutral-field underlying strength. MPR Rank is the primary GameDay Matrix national power ranking.
Live Model Audit
2026 Model Scorecard
Week 0 and Week 1 finals are compared with their exact pregame Matrix snapshots. Projections are never overwritten after the fact.
Finals Checked—
Winner Picks—
Spread Signals—
O/U Signals—
Scoring vs Matrix—
High-Confidence Picks—
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How the pieces connect
Strength → Schedule → Wins
MPR · Team StrengthHow good is the team?
Matrix Power Rating measures underlying team quality on a neutral field, independent of the schedule it happens to play.
Pure team strengthApply the Schedule→
Opponent strength. Venue. Timing. Context.
Projected Wins · Season OutlookHow many games should it win?
Team strength is run through the actual schedule to create an expected regular-season win total and range of outcomes.
Strength + schedule difficultyWhy both matter: a strong MPR team can project fewer wins because the path is difficult, while a lower-rated team can project a stronger record because its schedule is more favorable.
Definitions
What Every Number Means
Enough transparency to understand and audit the outputs without publishing proprietary model weights, coefficients, calibration rules, or blending logic.
Projected Wins
Expected regular-season wins after MPR is applied to the team’s actual schedule. It is an expectation, not a guarantee of one exact record.
Projected Score
Expected scoring for both teams after strength and matchup context are applied. It produces the projected margin, total and win probability.
Win Probability
The model’s estimated chance of winning the matchup — not a promise that the higher-probability team must win.
Model vs Market
Market information is a separate comparison layer. It does not change MPR, projected wins, projected scores, margins or win probabilities.
Confidence & Range
Confidence, rating uncertainty and outcome distributions communicate that projections have error bands rather than false precision.
Accountability
How We Grade the Matrix
Straight Up
Did the team favored by the locked Matrix projection actually win?
Score Accuracy
Average absolute error across the two projected team scores.
Margin Accuracy
Absolute difference between the projected winning margin and the actual result.
Total Accuracy
Absolute difference between the projected game total and the actual total points scored.
Side Signals
Only official locked side signals are graded ATS. A general projected margin is not retroactively labeled a bet.
Total Signals
Only official locked OVER/UNDER signals are graded against the stored market line.
Frozen-vintage rule: every result is graded against the projection and market snapshot that existed before the game. A later model update is never used to make an earlier prediction look better.
Season Model Audit
Win-Total Tracker
Preseason/current Matrix win projections, market totals and actual records stay visible together. Season signals remain OPEN until the final regular-season win count is known.
138 teams tracked12 strong preseason signals shownSeason grading: OPEN
| Team | Preseason Matrix | Current Matrix | Market O/U | Direction | Actual Record | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas StatePac-12 | 5.46 | 5.46 | 6.5 | UNDER | — | OPEN |
| Miami (OH)MAC | 8.54 | 8.54 | 7.5 | OVER | — | OPEN |
| WisconsinBig Ten | 5.32 | 5.32 | 6.5 | UNDER | — | OPEN |
| UNLVMountain West | 8.84 | 7.68 | 7.5 | OVER | — | OPEN |
| PittsburghACC | 6.87 | 6.87 | 7.5 | UNDER | — | OPEN |
| AkronMAC | 3.72 | 3.72 | 4.5 | UNDER | — | OPEN |
| Georgia SouthernSun Belt | 5.63 | 5.63 | 4.5 | OVER | — | OPEN |
| TulsaAmerican | 6.26 | 6.26 | 5.5 | OVER | — | OPEN |
| Virginia TechACC | 7.53 | 7.53 | 6.5 | OVER | — | OPEN |
| DukeACC | 6.40 | 6.40 | 5.5 | OVER | — | OPEN |
| Ole MissSEC | 7.14 | 7.14 | 7.5 | UNDER | — | OPEN |
| DelawareConference USA | 5.45 | 5.45 | 6.5 | UNDER | — | OPEN |
Update Discipline
Results update automatically. Ratings do not.
Live/final scores can update throughout the weekend. MPR, Projected Wins and future probabilities change only through the approved weekly model-update workflow after results, closing markets and personnel context are reviewed.
Protected Mechanics
Transparent outputs, protected recipe.
GameDay Matrix publishes definitions, vintages, signals and performance. Proprietary weights, coefficients, tuning rules and calibration logic remain private.