Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Chuck Martin, strong returning production and the MAC's top transfer ranking support another title run despite an unsettled quarterback competition.
MPR #86Projected Wins #46MAC MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-5.5National #86
Projected Wins7.67National #46
Schedule Strength#125National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense18.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+6.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-5.43 → -5.53-0.11 MPR
Rank#88 → #86+2 spots
Projected Wins7.31 → 7.67Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Central Michigan 28–27. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.34
Current Win-Total Gap+0.34
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -5.53 = OFF 19.50 − DEF 24.15 + ST 0.55 + legacy residual 0.00 + season adjustment -1.43. Sigma 2.64.
