Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Austin Novosad raises the quarterback ceiling, while only three returning starters and a rebuilt line of scrimmage create significant integration risk.
MPR #120Projected Wins #118MAC MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-14.2National #120
Projected Wins4.09National #118
Schedule Strength#120National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense21.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+1.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-13.99 → -14.17-0.18 MPR
Rank#120 → #120+0 spots
Projected Wins4.54 → 4.09Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Buffalo 24–31. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.84
Current Win-Total Gap-0.75
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -14.17 = OFF 13.50 − DEF 29.20 + ST 0.20 + legacy residual 0.35 + season adjustment 0.98. Sigma 3.58.
