Matrix Power Rating-22.7National #130
Projected Wins3.85National #121
Schedule Strength#137National SOS rank
Projected Offense20.9Points per game
Projected Defense29.4Points allowed
Point Differential-8.5Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
The Week 0 game is now final, but the evidence did not clear the threshold for a team-strength adjustment. Current MPR and projected wins therefore remain at the approved baseline.
Week 0 ResultL 17–28
MPR-22.7 → -22.7
Projected Wins3.85 → 3.85
Model update note
Result essentially matched model. Guardrail: Hold prior.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (4 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total4.5
Effective Market4.62
Adjusted Edge-0.76
SignalReview
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
AUG 29EMEastern MichiganAway · FINALLResult17–28Pre-game model 20–32—Win %—TotalFinal-11Actual margin
SEP 5MVMississippi Valley StateHome · Nonconference — FCS63%Win %29–24Baseline score+5.1Margin52.5TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 12FSFresno StateAway · Nonconference7%Win %13–35Baseline score-22.9Margin47.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 19NDNorth Dakota StateHome · Nonconference9%Win %16–36Baseline score-20.3Margin51.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.