Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Thirteen returning starters and coordinator continuity give Fresno State a dependable defensive floor, while an unproven quarterback limits the offensive ceiling.
MPR #73Projected Wins #54Pac-12 MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-1.1National #73
Projected Wins7.07National #54
Schedule Strength#81National SOS rank
Projected Offense26.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense21.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+4.5Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-0.95 → -1.07-0.12 MPR
Rank#74 → #73+1 spots
Projected Wins7.08 → 7.07Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Fresno State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market6.78
Current Win-Total Gap-0.38
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -1.07 = OFF 20.20 − DEF 22.65 + ST -0.00 + legacy residual -0.10 + season adjustment 1.48. Sigma 3.18.
