Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Jacurri Brown is a strong fit for Scott Abell's option offense, although limited returning production and a difficult nonconference slate constrain the win ceiling.
MPR #121Projected Wins #133American MPR #12Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-14.9National #121
Projected Wins2.14National #133
Schedule Strength#76National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense30.4Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-8.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-15.69 → -14.88+0.81 MPR
Rank#123 → #121+2 spots
Projected Wins2.29 → 2.14Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Florida Atlantic 49–51. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.8 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (2 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.54
Current Win-Total Gap-1.41
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -14.88 = OFF 16.90 − DEF 32.05 + ST 0.50 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment -0.33. Sigma 3.07.
