Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Cale Hellums and eight returning offensive starters preserve the option system's floor, but limited snapback and no experienced backup keep injury sensitivity elevated.
MPR #78Projected Wins #37American MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-2.0National #78
Projected Wins7.93National #37
Schedule Strength#83National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense24.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.4Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-2.08 → -2.05+0.03 MPR
Rank#79 → #78+1 spots
Projected Wins7.44 → 7.93Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Tulsa 38–35. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.79
Current Win-Total Gap+0.14
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -2.05 = OFF 24.70 − DEF 27.45 + ST 0.10 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment 0.45. Sigma 2.35.
