Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The scheme, defense and 11 returning starters support the highest league rating; replacing Blake Horvath with Braxton Woodson reduces the offensive ceiling.
MPR #80Projected Wins #104American MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-2.5National #80
Projected Wins4.79National #104
Schedule Strength#79National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+1.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-1.32 → -2.46-1.14 MPR
Rank#78 → #80-2 spots
Projected Wins5.63 → 4.79Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to North Texas 39–49. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.82
Current Win-Total Gap-3.03
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -2.46 = OFF 27.55 − DEF 27.50 + ST 0.25 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -2.91. Sigma 3.03.
