Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Caden Veltkamp, 11 returning starters and strong returning production create the American's best continuity profile outside the service academies.
MPR #98Projected Wins #59American MPR #10Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-7.9National #98
Projected Wins6.93National #59
Schedule Strength#86National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense32.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-4.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-7.17 → -7.92-0.76 MPR
Rank#94 → #98-4 spots
Projected Wins6.86 → 6.93Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Rice 51–49. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.8 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.84
Current Win-Total Gap+1.09
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -7.92 = OFF 27.85 − DEF 34.15 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -2.37. Sigma 2.01.
