Matrix Power Rating-13.4National #118
Projected Wins5.98National #84
Schedule Strength#132National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.9Points per game
Projected Defense27.9Points allowed
Point Differential+0.0Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-13.4 → -13.4
Projected Wins5.98 → 5.98
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (6 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total6.5
Effective Market6.23
Adjusted Edge-0.25
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5SFSouth FloridaAway · Nonconference18%Win %22–36Baseline score-13.8Margin57.9TotalLowFBSOpponent
SEP 19FAFlorida AtlanticAway · Nonconference26%Win %25–35Baseline score-9.3Margin60.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 26LLIUHome · Nonconference — FCS77%Win %33–22Baseline score+11.1Margin54.5TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
OCT 7NMNew Mexico StateHome · Conference USA63%Win %29–24Baseline score+5.2Margin53.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 13JSJacksonville StateAway · Conference USA28%Win %24–33Baseline score-8.8Margin57.3TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 20MTMiddle TennesseeHome · Conference USA84%Win %35–20Baseline score+14.9Margin55.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7MSMissouri StateHome · Conference USA69%Win %31–23Baseline score+7.5Margin54.3TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 21KSKennesaw StateAway · Conference USA31%Win %23–31Baseline score-7.3Margin54.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 28SHSam HoustonHome · Conference USA84%Win %35–20Baseline score+15.1Margin55.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.