2026 MATRIXWeek 1 Locked138 FBS Teams91 GamesUpdated Sep 4, 2026Model + Market + Context
GameDay Matrix
Conference Intelligence · Conference USA

Conference USA Matrix

Current team strength, projected path, Week 0 movement and the Week 1 board — with preseason title probabilities visibly separated from current model state.

10 Teams0 MPR Top 2510 Week 1 Games1 Certified Week 0 Moves
Current MPR LeaderWestern KentuckyNational #85 · MPR -4.5
Projected Wins LeaderLiberty8.45 expected wins
Conference Avg MPR-14.010-team current average
National Top 250By current MPR rank
Week 0 Reviews21 cleared update gate
Current Strength

Team-by-Team Outlook

Conference rank is based on current MPR. Projected Wins and SOS describe the path. Title probabilities are preseason references.

10 Conference USA teams
RankTeamMPRProj WinsSOSTitle Game*Move
#1 Western KentuckyNational #85 · 0-0 -4.5MPR 7.43Proj Wins #101SOS 53%Title Game*
#2 LibertyNational #91 · 0-0 -5.6MPR 8.45Proj Wins #138SOS 48%Title Game*
#3 Kennesaw StateNational #104 · 0-0 -8.7MPR 6.99Proj Wins #127SOS 29%Title Game*
#4 Jacksonville StateNational #106 · 0-1 -9.1MPR 6.80Proj Wins #130SOS 39%Title Game* ▼ 2.0
#5 DelawareNational #113 · 0-0 -12.2MPR 5.45Proj Wins #111SOS 10%Title Game*
#6 Florida InternationalNational #118 · 0-0 -13.4MPR 5.98Proj Wins #132SOS 12%Title Game*
#7 New Mexico StateNational #123 · 0-1 -15.8MPR 4.55Proj Wins #116SOS 7%Title Game*
#8 Missouri StateNational #126 · 0-0 -18.5MPR 3.42Proj Wins #87SOS 2%Title Game*
#9 Middle TennesseeNational #135 · 0-0 -25.8MPR 2.31Proj Wins #120SOS 0%Title Game*
#10 Sam HoustonNational #136 · 0-0 -26.0MPR 2.18Proj Wins #102SOS 0%Title Game*
Data-vintage rule: MPR, national rank and projected wins reflect the current approved Week 1 team state. Title-game and conference-champion probabilities remain the certified preseason simulation.
Evidence In

Week 0 Matrix Moves

Every Conference USA team that played in Week 0 is shown, including results reviewed without a strength adjustment.

Week 1 Locked

Conference USA Games on the Board

Current locked Week 1 GameDay Matrix projections for every game involving a Conference USA team.

SAT, SEP 5Medium
16–39
FavoriteTroy 94%
Projected Total54.2
THU, SEP 3Low
West Georgia
22–30
FavoriteKennesaw State 69%
Projected Total51.6
SAT, SEP 5Medium
Eastern Kentucky
26–29
FavoriteJacksonville State 59%
Projected Total54.7
THU, SEP 3Medium
Merrimack
24–32
FavoriteDelaware 71%
Projected Total55.5
SAT, SEP 5Low
Murray State
28–25
FavoriteMurray State 59%
Projected Total52.9
SAT, SEP 5Low
Mercyhurst
21–30
FavoriteNew Mexico State 72%
Projected Total51.0
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