Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Deshawn Purdie, Jamey Chadwell and the league's strongest offensive baseline make Liberty the favorite, with discipline and roster integration the key variables.
MPR #74Projected Wins #7Conference USA MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-1.3National #74
Projected Wins10.09National #7
Schedule Strength#137National SOS rank
Projected Offense35.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense21.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+14.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-2.46 → -1.33+1.13 MPR
Rank#80 → #74+6 spots
Projected Wins9.95 → 10.09Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Kennesaw State 34–6. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Liberty news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (10 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.33
Current Win-Total Gap+1.76
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -1.33 = OFF 25.90 − DEF 31.75 + ST -0.20 + legacy residual 0.20 + season adjustment 4.52. Sigma 2.42.
