Matrix Power Rating-1.7National #75
Projected Wins8.56National #14
Schedule Strength#126National SOS rank
Projected Offense31.5Points per game
Projected Defense21.6Points allowed
Point Differential+9.9Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-1.7 → -1.7
Projected Wins8.56 → 8.56
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (9 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total8.5
Effective Market8.65
Adjusted Edge-0.10
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 12WWagnerHome · Nonconference — FCS93%Win %37–15Baseline score+22.6Margin51.8TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 19SDSan Diego StateAway · Nonconference41%Win %23–26Baseline score-3.4Margin49.4TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 10GSGeorgia SouthernAway · Sun Belt62%Win %29–25Baseline score+4.6Margin53.7TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 17GSGeorgia StateHome · Sun Belt95%Win %40–15Baseline score+25.1Margin55.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 22ASAppalachian StateAway · Sun Belt71%Win %31–23Baseline score+8.1Margin53.3TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 28CCCoastal CarolinaHome · Sun Belt85%Win %34–19Baseline score+15.3Margin53.7TotalLowFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.