Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Camden Coleman and the league's top portal class preserve contender upside, but Billy Napier must integrate a new staff and a roster returning only three starters.
MPR #66Projected Wins #6Sun Belt MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating0.5National #66
Projected Wins10.24National #6
Schedule Strength#126National SOS rank
Projected Offense33.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense19.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+13.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR1.73 → 0.46-1.26 MPR
Rank#63 → #66-3 spots
Projected Wins10.30 → 10.24Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Appalachian State 31–34. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (10 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.65
Current Win-Total Gap+1.58
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 0.46 = OFF 26.40 − DEF 25.55 + ST -0.35 + legacy residual -0.20 + season adjustment 0.16. Sigma 2.80.
