Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: A new staff, one returning starter and an unsettled roster create the conference's largest rebuild despite a sizable portal class.
MPR #131Projected Wins #128Sun Belt MPR #13Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-22.3National #131
Projected Wins3.16National #128
Schedule Strength#101National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense33.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-12.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-23.47 → -22.33+1.15 MPR
Rank#131 → #131+0 spots
Projected Wins2.23 → 3.16Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Louisiana 35–31. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
The gold bar is the current mode (3 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.64
Current Win-Total Gap-0.48
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -22.33 = OFF 16.20 − DEF 39.80 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual -0.10 + season adjustment 1.87. Sigma 3.96.
