Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Eight returning offensive starters and a favorable league schedule create upside, but a first-year quarterback and thin portal class keep uncertainty elevated.
MPR #96Projected Wins #35Sun Belt MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-7.8National #96
Projected Wins7.99National #35
Schedule Strength#133National SOS rank
Projected Offense34.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense24.1Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+10.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-6.34 → -7.75-1.41 MPR
Rank#89 → #96-7 spots
Projected Wins8.97 → 7.99Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Southern Miss 31–35. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.37
Current Win-Total Gap+0.62
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -7.75 = OFF 25.50 − DEF 33.75 + ST -0.40 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment 0.75. Sigma 2.78.
