Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Ryan Beard inherits more than 50 new players and only five returning starters, creating a broad range despite one of the league's largest portal classes.
MPR #118Projected Wins #120Sun Belt MPR #11Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-13.7National #118
Projected Wins3.96National #120
Schedule Strength#104National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense29.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-4.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-13.93 → -13.65+0.28 MPR
Rank#119 → #118+1 spots
Projected Wins3.85 → 3.96Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Coastal Carolina news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.74
Current Win-Total Gap-0.79
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -13.65 = OFF 20.70 − DEF 34.35 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual -0.10 + season adjustment 0.60. Sigma 3.59.
