Matrix Power Rating-5.2National #88
Projected Wins7.38National #46
Schedule Strength#117National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.4Points per game
Projected Defense22.4Points allowed
Point Differential+4.9Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-5.2 → -5.2
Projected Wins7.38 → 7.38
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (7 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.58
Adjusted Edge-0.21
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5NSNorfolk StateHome · Nonconference — FCS89%Win %33–15Baseline score+18.4Margin48.3TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 12VTVirginia TechAway · Nonconference12%Win %16–33Baseline score-16.3Margin48.7TotalHighFBSOpponent
SEP 19ECEast CarolinaHome · Nonconference47%Win %23–24Baseline score-0.6Margin47.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 10ASAppalachian StateAway · Sun Belt60%Win %27–23Baseline score+4.0Margin49.7TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 15GSGeorgia SouthernHome · Sun Belt65%Win %28–22Baseline score+5.8Margin50.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7CCCoastal CarolinaAway · Sun Belt66%Win %28–22Baseline score+6.4Margin50.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.