Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Quinn Henicle and six returning defensive starters support another strong season, but only 46% snapback and one returning offensive starter introduce regression risk.
MPR #105Projected Wins #112Sun Belt MPR #6Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-9.5National #105
Projected Wins4.37National #112
Schedule Strength#111National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense23.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+4.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-8.57 → -9.54-0.97 MPR
Rank#101 → #105-4 spots
Projected Wins4.89 → 4.37Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Louisiana Tech 0–26. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.58
Current Win-Total Gap-3.21
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -9.54 = OFF 19.65 − DEF 25.55 + ST -0.70 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -3.09. Sigma 3.23.
