Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: A near-total roster reset and an unproven quarterback lower the floor, although Dowell Loggains and a large portal class create rebound upside.
MPR #110Projected Wins #41Sun Belt MPR #9Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-11.0National #110
Projected Wins7.83National #41
Schedule Strength#128National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-12.00 → -11.02+0.98 MPR
Rank#114 → #110+4 spots
Projected Wins7.75 → 7.83Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat James Madison 34–31. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.89
Current Win-Total Gap+1.94
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -11.02 = OFF 21.20 − DEF 33.55 + ST 0.30 + legacy residual 0.50 + season adjustment 0.53. Sigma 3.31.
