Troy at James Madison
Matrix 21–32 · James Madison 77.6%
Current MPR leaderJames MadisonNational #66 · MPR 0.5
Projected wins leaderJames Madison10.24 expected wins
Average MPR-11.5Current neutral-field strength
MPR Top 250Teams ranked 1–25 nationally
Title favoriteJames Madison58.5% to win the title
Conference Headlines
Latest Sun Belt news and movement.
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Current Strength
Team-by-Team Outlook
Conference rank follows current MPR. Records and title chances are with results through October 25.
RankTeamMPRProj WinsSOSTitle chancesWk MPR
0.5MPR10.24Proj wins#126SOSReach83.1%Win58.5%-1.26 Week 8 MPR
-5.6MPR8.16Proj wins#97SOSReach69.7%Win26.5%+1.19 Week 8 MPR
-6.9MPR6.08Proj wins#91SOSReach5.1%Win2.7%-0.32 Week 8 MPR
-7.8MPR7.99Proj wins#133SOSReach10.8%Win3.1%-1.41 Week 8 MPR
-8.4MPR5.26Proj wins#118SOSReach1.9%Win0.6%-1.17 Week 8 MPR
-9.5MPR4.37Proj wins#111SOSReach<0.1%Win<0.1%-0.97 Week 8 MPR
-9.8MPR7.01Proj wins#127SOSReach0.3%Win0.1%+0.52 Week 8 MPR
-10.1MPR6.24Proj wins#122SOSReach4.2%Win1.0%-0.60 Week 8 MPR
-11.0MPR7.83Proj wins#128SOSReach11.2%Win4.2%+0.98 Week 8 MPR
-11.6MPR6.47Proj wins#117SOSReach13.3%Win3.1%-0.31 Week 8 MPR
-13.7MPR3.96Proj wins#104SOSReach0.3%Win<0.1%+0.28 Week 8 MPR
-20.2MPR5.25Proj wins#116SOSReach<0.1%Win<0.1%+0.30 Week 8 MPR
-22.3MPR3.16Proj wins#101SOSReach0.1%Win<0.1%+1.15 Week 8 MPR
Snapshot: Standings and season outlook with results through October 25. Ratings after Week 8; published October 26 game forecasts retained. Method & sources →
Evidence In
Week 2 Evidence Archive
The cards below preserve the original Week 2 review. Their changes are historical; the current Move column above shows the Week 8 update.
No Week 0 games: no teams in this group entered the Week 0 model-review gate. This historical team state reflects the Week 2.1 reviewed ratings.
Model UpdatedGeorgia State
W 31–17 vs Kennesaw State
MPR +2.25 · Projected Wins +1.19
Model UpdatedMarshallW 28–26 vs Middle Tennessee
MPR -1.50 · Projected Wins -0.30
Model UpdatedAppalachian StateW 27–24 vs East Carolina
MPR +1.25 · Projected Wins +1.04
No saved forecastArkansas StateW 52–7 vs West Georgia
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastCoastal CarolinaW 45–7 vs Fordham
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
Model UpdatedGeorgia SouthernL 7–22 vs Clemson
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins -0.11
No saved forecastJames MadisonW 87–3 vs Wagner
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastLouisianaL 30–49 vs USC
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastLouisiana TechL 14–45 vs LSU
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastOld DominionL 21–44 vs Virginia Tech
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastSouth AlabamaL 24–28 vs Tulane
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastSouthern MissL 8–43 vs Auburn
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastTroyW 34–17 vs Alabama State
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastUL MonroeL 20–26 vs UAB
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
Week 9 conference games
Published October 26 forecasts with game results as they arrive.
Marshall at Old Dominion
Matrix 26–29 · Old Dominion 58.4%
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State
Matrix 31–27 · Coastal Carolina 62.1%
Louisiana Tech at South Alabama
Matrix 30–26 · Louisiana Tech 59.7%
Southern Miss at UL Monroe
Matrix 27–27 · Southern Miss 51.3%
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern
Matrix 24–31 · Georgia Southern 66.6%
Week 8 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
South Alabama at Marshall
Final 13–20 · Original Matrix 29–33
Frozen forecast and grades →James Madison at Appalachian State
Final 31–34 · Original Matrix 32–21
Frozen forecast and grades →UL Monroe at Troy
Final 21–14 · Original Matrix 16–37
Frozen forecast and grades →Louisiana at Southern Miss
Final 31–35 · Original Matrix 37–22
Frozen forecast and grades →Old Dominion at Louisiana Tech
Final 0–26 · Original Matrix 22–26
Frozen forecast and grades →Georgia State at Arkansas State
Final 32–38 · Original Matrix 22–36
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 7 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Georgia Southern at Old Dominion
Final 23–15 · Original Matrix 24–26
Frozen forecast and grades →Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina
Final 35–32 · Original Matrix 27–28
Frozen forecast and grades →Georgia State at James Madison
Final 22–49 · Original Matrix 16–40
Frozen forecast and grades →Troy at Louisiana
Final 6–33 · Original Matrix 28–28
Frozen forecast and grades →Arkansas State at Southern Miss
Final 23–13 · Original Matrix 34–22
Frozen forecast and grades →Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe
Final 24–0 · Original Matrix 34–19
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 6 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Southern Miss at Troy
Final 34–55 · Original Matrix 18–37
Frozen forecast and grades →South Alabama at Arkansas State
Final 56–49 · Original Matrix 26–32
Frozen forecast and grades →Old Dominion at Appalachian State
Final 10–3 · Original Matrix 25–25
Frozen forecast and grades →Coastal Carolina at Marshall
Final 27–21 · Original Matrix 26–34
Frozen forecast and grades →James Madison at Georgia Southern
Final 27–24 · Original Matrix 31–23
Frozen forecast and grades →Louisiana at Louisiana Tech
Final 31–32 · Original Matrix 27–30
Frozen forecast and grades →