Matrix Power Rating-24.8National #133
Projected Wins2.21National #135
Schedule Strength#108National SOS rank
Projected Offense20.5Points per game
Projected Defense35.9Points allowed
Point Differential-15.4Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-24.8 → -24.8
Projected Wins2.21 → 2.21
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (2 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total3.5
Effective Market3.82
Adjusted Edge-1.61
SignalReview
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5NCNorth Carolina A&THome · Nonconference — FCS49%Win %28–29Baseline score-0.3Margin55.7TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 12KSKennesaw StateAway · Nonconference15%Win %20–36Baseline score-17.3Margin55.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 26NINorthern IllinoisHome · Nonconference42%Win %24–27Baseline score-3.2Margin51.9TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 24ASArkansas StateAway · Sun Belt10%Win %19–39Baseline score-19.6Margin58.3TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7ASAppalachian StateAway · Sun Belt16%Win %21–36Baseline score-14.8Margin57.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 14GSGeorgia SouthernHome · Sun Belt17%Win %22–36Baseline score-14.1Margin57.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.