Matrix Power Rating-8.7National #104
Projected Wins6.99National #54
Schedule Strength#127National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.5Points per game
Projected Defense25.5Points allowed
Point Differential+3.0Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-8.7 → -8.7
Projected Wins6.99 → 6.99
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (7 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total6.5
Effective Market6.24
Adjusted Edge+0.75
SignalReview
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 3WGWest GeorgiaHome · Nonconference — FCS69%Win %30–22Baseline score+7.6Margin51.6TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 12GSGeorgia StateAway · Nonconference85%Win %36–20Baseline score+13.8Margin55.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 26ASArkansas StateAway · Nonconference41%Win %25–29Baseline score-3.5Margin54.1TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 7JSJacksonville StateHome · Conference USA53%Win %28–27Baseline score+1.0Margin54.4TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 14MSMissouri StateAway · Conference USA69%Win %29–22Baseline score+7.3Margin51.5TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 28MTMiddle TennesseeAway · Conference USA83%Win %34–19Baseline score+14.5Margin52.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14SHSam HoustonAway · Conference USA83%Win %34–19Baseline score+14.5Margin53.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 21FIFlorida InternationalHome · Conference USA69%Win %31–23Baseline score+7.3Margin54.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 28WKWestern KentuckyAway · Conference USA34%Win %24–30Baseline score-6.3Margin54.2TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.