Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The defending champion retains defensive continuity and added significant portal volume; quarterback translation remains the primary risk.
MPR #113Projected Wins #122Conference USA MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-12.0National #113
Projected Wins3.89National #122
Schedule Strength#123National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-10.72 → -12.04-1.32 MPR
Rank#110 → #113-3 spots
Projected Wins4.08 → 3.89Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Liberty 6–34. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.24
Current Win-Total Gap-2.34
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -12.04 = OFF 21.25 − DEF 30.40 + ST -0.45 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -2.59. Sigma 3.08.
