Matrix Power Rating-25.8National #135
Projected Wins2.31National #134
Schedule Strength#120National SOS rank
Projected Offense19.7Points per game
Projected Defense34.9Points allowed
Point Differential-15.2Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-25.8 → -25.8
Projected Wins2.31 → 2.31
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (2 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total3.5
Effective Market3.80
Adjusted Edge-1.49
SignalReview
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5MSMurray StateHome · Nonconference — FCS41%Win %25–28Baseline score-3.5Margin52.9TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 26JSJacksonville StateAway · Conference USA8%Win %17–38Baseline score-21.3Margin55.7TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 20FIFlorida InternationalAway · Conference USA16%Win %20–35Baseline score-14.9Margin55.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 28KSKennesaw StateHome · Conference USA17%Win %19–34Baseline score-14.5Margin52.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7WKWestern KentuckyHome · Conference USA10%Win %18–37Baseline score-19.1Margin55.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 21SHSam HoustonAway · Conference USA44%Win %26–28Baseline score-2.4Margin54.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 28NMNew Mexico StateHome · Conference USA32%Win %23–30Baseline score-7.0Margin52.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.