Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Roman Gagliano offers developmental upside, but only four starters return and the defensive baseline leaves little margin for error.
MPR #130Projected Wins #92Conference USA MPR #9Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-21.7National #130
Projected Wins5.50National #92
Schedule Strength#121National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense31.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-9.1Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-23.02 → -21.69+1.33 MPR
Rank#130 → #130+0 spots
Projected Wins5.34 → 5.50Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Florida International 26–23. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.80
Current Win-Total Gap+1.70
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -21.69 = OFF 14.80 − DEF 38.85 + ST 0.20 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment 2.11. Sigma 3.05.
