Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The league's highest snapback rate, improved retention and Trey Hedden raise the floor despite a modest offensive baseline.
MPR #122Projected Wins #100Conference USA MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-15.5National #122
Projected Wins5.18National #100
Schedule Strength#106National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-15.42 → -15.49-0.07 MPR
Rank#121 → #122-1 spots
Projected Wins5.25 → 5.18Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Sam Houston 30–24. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest New Mexico State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.58
Current Win-Total Gap+0.60
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -15.49 = OFF 17.20 − DEF 33.15 + ST 0.00 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment 0.31. Sigma 2.28.
