Matrix Power Rating-15.8National #123
Projected Wins4.55National #112
Schedule Strength#116National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.3Points per game
Projected Defense29.2Points allowed
Point Differential-5.9Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
The Week 0 game is now final, but the evidence did not clear the threshold for a team-strength adjustment. Current MPR and projected wins therefore remain at the approved baseline.
Week 0 ResultL 17–34
MPR-15.8 → -15.8
Projected Wins4.55 → 4.55
Model update note
Beat expected margin despite run-game weakness. Guardrail: Opponent/game-state context.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (5 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total4.5
Effective Market4.58
Adjusted Edge-0.03
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 19NNichollsHome · Nonconference — FCS52%Win %26–25Baseline score+0.7Margin51.0TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 26NMNew MexicoHome · Nonconference17%Win %18–32Baseline score-13.8Margin50.9TotalHighFBSOpponent
OCT 1WKWestern KentuckyHome · Conference USA29%Win %23–31Baseline score-8.5Margin53.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 7FIFlorida InternationalAway · Conference USA37%Win %24–29Baseline score-5.2Margin53.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 21SHSam HoustonAway · Conference USA69%Win %30–22Baseline score+7.5Margin52.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 28JSJacksonville StateHome · Conference USA34%Win %24–30Baseline score-6.3Margin53.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14MSMissouri StateAway · Conference USA50%Win %26–25Baseline score+0.2Margin50.9TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 28MTMiddle TennesseeAway · Conference USA68%Win %30–23Baseline score+7.0Margin52.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.