Matrix Power Rating-26.0National #136
Projected Wins2.18National #136
Schedule Strength#102National SOS rank
Projected Offense18.8Points per game
Projected Defense35.5Points allowed
Point Differential-16.7Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-26.0 → -26.0
Projected Wins2.18 → 2.18
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (2 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total3.5
Effective Market3.25
Adjusted Edge-1.07
SignalReview
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 19NNichollsHome · Nonconference — FCS26%Win %22–31Baseline score-9.7Margin53.2TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 26TTTexas TechAway · Nonconference0%Win %5–47Baseline score-50.7Margin52.3TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 14WKWestern KentuckyHome · Conference USA10%Win %18–37Baseline score-19.1Margin55.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 21NMNew Mexico StateHome · Conference USA31%Win %22–30Baseline score-7.5Margin52.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 27MSMissouri StateAway · Conference USA26%Win %22–31Baseline score-9.5Margin53.1TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 7JSJacksonville StateAway · Conference USA7%Win %17–39Baseline score-21.7Margin56.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14KSKennesaw StateHome · Conference USA17%Win %19–34Baseline score-14.5Margin53.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 21MTMiddle TennesseeHome · Conference USA56%Win %28–26Baseline score+2.4Margin54.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 28FIFlorida InternationalAway · Conference USA16%Win %20–35Baseline score-15.1Margin55.8TotalMediumFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.