Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Elite roster and portal class remain intact, but quarterback injury/eligibility developments create a large negative residual.
MPR #10Projected Wins #10Big 12 MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating20.1National #10
Projected Wins9.97National #10
Schedule Strength#65National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense19.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+13.0Projected per game
Week 3 Final Context · Frozen Sep 17TE Terrance Carter Jr. and edge Trey White are both viewed as game-time decisions for Friday vs Houston.
No projection change was reviewed. Texas Tech -7.5 was excluded from the final Signal Board; no further review is scheduled.
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR21.29 → 20.10-1.19 MPR
Rank#9 → #10-1 spots
Projected Wins10.97 → 9.97Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Cincinnati 24–37. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (10 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total10.5
Preseason Effective Market10.88
Current Win-Total Gap-0.90
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 20.10 = OFF 36.07 − DEF 14.96 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment -1.65. Sigma 2.50.
