Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Nine returning starters and proven skill talent offset the competition jump for an experienced Ivy League quarterback.
MPR #41Projected Wins #96Big 12 MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating7.8National #41
Projected Wins5.25National #96
Schedule Strength#45National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR9.10 → 7.79-1.31 MPR
Rank#37 → #41-4 spots
Projected Wins6.21 → 5.25Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to West Virginia 20–24. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.21
Current Win-Total Gap-1.96
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 7.79 = OFF 31.27 − DEF 21.70 + ST -0.17 + legacy residual -0.95 + season adjustment -0.66. Sigma 1.94.
