Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Eleven returning starters, quarterback continuity and stable development infrastructure create a reliable floor.
MPR #14Projected Wins #14Big 12 MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating16.2National #14
Projected Wins9.76National #14
Schedule Strength#50National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense21.4Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+10.7Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR17.51 → 16.16-1.35 MPR
Rank#14 → #14+0 spots
Projected Wins10.70 → 9.76Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to UCF 31–39. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (10 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.67
Current Win-Total Gap+1.08
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 16.16 = OFF 33.89 − DEF 17.70 + ST 0.56 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment -0.64. Sigma 1.97.
