Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: CJ Carr, 15 returning starters and an elite defensive core make Notre Dame a national-title contender. Running-back turnover and a demanding market total leave little margin for an upset.
MPR #2Projected Wins #3Independent MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating27.4National #2
Projected Wins10.40National #3
Schedule Strength#55National SOS rank
Projected Offense37.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense16.4Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+20.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR27.50 → 27.35-0.14 MPR
Rank#2 → #2+0 spots
Projected Wins10.44 → 10.40Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Notre Dame news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (11 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total11.5
Preseason Effective Market11.18
Current Win-Total Gap-0.78
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 27.35 = OFF 41.10 − DEF 14.10 + ST 0.50 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment -0.20. Sigma 2.07.
