Matrix Power Rating26.8National #3
Projected Wins10.89National #1
Schedule Strength#60National SOS rank
Projected Offense37.9Points per game
Projected Defense14.4Points allowed
Point Differential+23.5Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR26.8 → 26.8
Projected Wins10.89 → 10.89
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (11 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total11.5
Effective Market11.18
Adjusted Edge-0.29
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 6WWisconsinNeutral · Nonconference — Lambeau Field94%Win %35–12Baseline score+23.4Margin46.6TotalHighFBSOpponent
SEP 19MSMichigan StateHome · Nonconference97%Win %42–13Baseline score+29.6Margin54.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 3NCNorth CarolinaAway · Nonconference90%Win %35–15Baseline score+19.4Margin50.0TotalHighFBSOpponent
OCT 31NNavyNeutral · Nonconference — Gillette Stadium95%Win %40–15Baseline score+25.5Margin55.0TotalHighFBSOpponent
NOV 7M(Miami (FL)Home · Nonconference67%Win %29–23Baseline score+6.8Margin51.6TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14BCBoston CollegeHome · Nonconference98%Win %42–12Baseline score+30.6Margin54.1TotalHighFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.