Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Portal additions and Colton Joseph's dual-threat production create upside, but limited continuity and staff pressure widen the range.
MPR #44Projected Wins #45Big Ten MPR #14Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating6.3National #44
Projected Wins7.69National #45
Schedule Strength#51National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense21.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+1.4Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR5.09 → 6.33+1.24 MPR
Rank#52 → #44+8 spots
Projected Wins6.78 → 7.69Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat USC 24–7. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.46
Current Win-Total Gap+1.23
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 6.33 = OFF 20.87 − DEF 17.52 + ST -0.30 + legacy residual -0.05 + season adjustment 3.33. Sigma 2.58.
