Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Noah Kim and nine returning starters give the Eagles one of the MAC's steadier profiles, offset by a difficult opening month and defensive run-game concerns.
MPR #124Projected Wins #98MAC MPR #8Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-16.4National #124
Projected Wins5.22National #98
Schedule Strength#131National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-4.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-16.87 → -16.40+0.48 MPR
Rank#124 → #124+0 spots
Projected Wins5.48 → 5.22Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Ohio 20–24. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Eastern Michigan news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.88
Current Win-Total Gap-0.67
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -16.40 = OFF 16.85 − DEF 33.30 + ST -0.00 + legacy residual 0.80 + season adjustment -0.75. Sigma 2.35.
