Matrix Power Rating-13.9National #119
Projected Wins6.23National #72
Schedule Strength#133National SOS rank
Projected Offense24.0Points per game
Projected Defense24.9Points allowed
Point Differential-0.8Projected per game
Current Context
Certified UpdateWhat Changed
The Week 0 result cleared the model-update gate. The adjustment is reflected in the current MPR, national rank and projected-wins figures above.
Week 0 ResultW 28–17
MPR-14.4 → -13.9
Projected Wins5.87 → 6.23
Model update note
Near-perfect model calibration; QB positive. Guardrail: No major move needed.
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (6 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total5.5
Effective Market5.88
Adjusted Edge-0.02
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
AUG 29SSSacramento StateHome · FINALWResult28–17Pre-game model 32–20—Win %—TotalFinal+11Actual margin
SEP 4SJSan Jose StateHome · Nonconference60%Win %28–24Baseline score+3.7Margin51.5TotalLowFBSOpponent
SEP 12MSMichigan StateAway · Nonconference13%Win %17–34Baseline score-16.7Margin51.7TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 26LLindenwoodHome · Nonconference — FCS60%Win %28–24Baseline score+3.9Margin51.2TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.