Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Broc Lowry, Jalen Buckley and 11 returning starters give the reigning champion the league's best continuity, with defensive regression the primary concern.
MPR #89Projected Wins #36MAC MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-5.8National #89
Projected Wins7.95National #36
Schedule Strength#112National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense17.1Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+10.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-5.29 → -5.81-0.52 MPR
Rank#87 → #89-2 spots
Projected Wins8.52 → 7.95Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Toledo 38–45. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Western Michigan news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.28
Current Win-Total Gap+0.68
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -5.81 = OFF 19.15 − DEF 25.35 + ST -0.35 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment 0.59. Sigma 2.43.
