Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Reese Poffenbarger, six returning offensive starters and a manageable league slate create bowl upside; the defense still has limited proven depth.
MPR #129Projected Wins #131MAC MPR #10Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-21.6National #129
Projected Wins2.37National #131
Schedule Strength#109National SOS rank
Projected Offense18.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-6.5Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-20.90 → -21.62-0.72 MPR
Rank#128 → #129-1 spots
Projected Wins2.87 → 2.37Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Kent State 20–35. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.7 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (2 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.61
Current Win-Total Gap-2.24
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -21.62 = OFF 13.35 − DEF 31.80 + ST -0.60 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -2.72. Sigma 1.94.
