The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR5.72 → 6.41+0.69 MPR
Rank#49 → #43+6 spots
Projected Wins6.08 → 6.73Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Iowa 13–10. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.7 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.18
Current Win-Total Gap+0.54
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 6.41 = OFF 25.29 − DEF 20.34 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual -0.25 + season adjustment 2.21. Sigma 2.24.
