Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The defense and program floor remain trustworthy, but an inexperienced projected quarterback and weak net portal signal limit offensive upside.
MPR #23Projected Wins #28Big Ten MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating13.1National #23
Projected Wins8.25National #28
Schedule Strength#35National SOS rank
Projected Offense26.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense20.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+6.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR13.96 → 13.11-0.85 MPR
Rank#20 → #23-3 spots
Projected Wins9.07 → 8.25Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Minnesota 10–13. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.9 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.61
Current Win-Total Gap+0.64
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 13.11 = OFF 29.73 − DEF 17.37 + ST 0.79 + legacy residual -0.25 + season adjustment 0.21. Sigma 3.02.
