Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Veteran quarterback cannot fully offset zero returning starters, large portal turnover and a complete coaching transition.
MPR #69Projected Wins #108Big 12 MPR #15Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-0.1National #69
Projected Wins4.69National #108
Schedule Strength#43National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-6.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR1.37 → -0.13-1.50 MPR
Rank#65 → #69-4 spots
Projected Wins5.14 → 4.69Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Arizona 3–39. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Iowa State news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.91
Current Win-Total Gap-0.21
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -0.13 = OFF 22.87 − DEF 22.36 + ST 0.09 + legacy residual -0.20 + season adjustment -0.53. Sigma 3.28.
