Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Massive turnover creates variance, but a system-familiar North Texas core and productive quarterback provide real upside.
MPR #31Projected Wins #38Big 12 MPR #6Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating11.1National #31
Projected Wins7.93National #38
Schedule Strength#53National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense24.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.5Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR9.70 → 11.09+1.39 MPR
Rank#33 → #31+2 spots
Projected Wins7.50 → 7.93Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Colorado 57–24. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Oklahoma State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.23
Current Win-Total Gap+1.70
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 11.09 = OFF 30.94 − DEF 23.04 + ST 0.55 + legacy residual 0.25 + season adjustment 2.39. Sigma 4.10.
